Why We Organize:

The 3.5% Rule and Vancouver Against Fascism

When we started Vancouver Against Fascism, we weren’t just reacting to a moment — we were stepping into a movement. And we were inspired by a simple but powerful insight from decades of global resistance research:

If 3.5% of the population rises up in sustained, nonviolent resistance, it can change everything.

This is what political scientist Dr. Erica Chenoweth calls the 3.5% rule, based on over a century’s worth of global data on uprisings and protest movements. It tells us that mass movements don’t need to be majority movements — they need to be bold, strategic, and relentless.

In Canada, 3.5% of the population means about 1.35 million people.
In Vancouver, it’s just over 93,000.

That’s not out of reach.
That’s our target.

What the 3.5% Rule Actually Means

The rule comes from an analysis of over 300 mass movements around the world (mostly aimed at overthrowing autocratic governments) between 1900 and 2014. Here’s what Chenoweth found:

• Every campaign that mobilized at least 3.5% of the population at its peak succeeded.

• Nearly all of them were nonviolent.

• Most successful movements didn’t need to hit 3.5% — but the bigger the base, the better the odds.

It’s important to note: the 3.5% rule is a descriptive pattern, not a guaranteed formula. It's not a magic number that guarantees victory — but it’s a strong signal that a movement is gaining the traction needed to shake the system.

How It Works

Why does 3.5% matter? Because it creates momentum. Here’s how:

1. Disruption: When enough people mobilize, they disrupt the status quo — politically, economically, and socially.

2. Public Sympathy: If 3.5% are in the streets, many more likely support the cause. That invisible majority becomes a powerful force.

3. Elite Defections: As movements grow, political and economic elites start to defect — and the cracks in power begin to widen.

What It Doesn’t Mean

The 3.5% rule isn’t a shortcut. Success depends on:

• Strong organization and leadership

• Clear strategy and adaptability

• Deep public engagement and trust

• Sustained, courageous action over time

It also doesn’t apply equally to every type of movement — it emerged from studies of maximalist campaigns, like overthrowing regimes or winning national independence. But the lessons are clear: mass participation matters, especially when it’s organized and strategic.

What This Means for Vancouver

At Vancouver Against Fascism, we’re not organizing for optics. We’re organizing to shift the balance of power.

The 3.5% rule reminds us that we don’t need everyone — but we do need you.

Here in Vancouver, the tipping point means mobilizing about 93,000 people. That’s not a guarantee — but it is a goal we can reach together. And it’s a goal worth organizing for, with everything on the line.

We need you to be part of the 3.5%.
Because change doesn’t just happen — people make it happen.

Join Us

Check out our Events Page for upcoming protests, trainings, and organizing calls

Follow us on Signal for for real-time updates, event info, and action alerts

Show up. Stand up. Be the tipping point.